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Bitcoin: Back to Reality (BTC-USD)

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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Bleeding for months due to limited liquidity conditions and target selling of experimental high tech stocks. Low interest rates since the global financial crisis in 2008 have led to market access extreme evaluations. Now, the decade-long bubble Popped, the origins are back to reality.

For most of Bitcoin’s existence, it has benefited from low interest rates. With the price now rising, the price of Bitcoin is suffering from the resulting uncertainty. In the near term, the extension of the 3 Elliott wave in Bitcoin indicates a collapse in 21 thousand dollars. Long-Term Bitcoin Price Cycle Forecast Points to 80% Collapse 14 thousand dollars.

Bitcoin all time chart

Bitcoin all time chart (TradingView 5-11-22)

At BitFreedom Research, We believe that the activities of the past 2.5 years will be remembered as the second dot-com bubble. The bubble appeared in November 2021 when Bitcoin reached $68,990. From now on, the constant selling pressure should eliminate any elements in the cryptocurrency market that do not provide tangible value.

Long-term survivors of encryption crashes

While the underlying internet technologies that led to the start of the dot-com millennium bubble were powerful, the glut of investments in the space caused their eventual meltdown. This same process hit the cryptocurrency market, and the crash is happening Immediately:

Luna, the first crash of the cipher crash

Luna, the first crash of the cipher crash (TradingView 5-11-22)

Following the same rules that enforced the dot-com crash, we can conclude that there will be oligopolistic winners growing to dominate every 3 sector of the web. According to our own analysis, the following cryptocurrencies are likely to survive and thrive long into the future:

  1. BitcoinBy: the invention of digital scarcity, BTC is the purest form of “digital gold”. The higher level purpose of Bitcoin is to be a store of value, and as such its price must follow the long-term Natural Energy Law growth curve.
  2. Ethereum (ETH-USD): First ever Application From digital scarcity, Ethereum maintains a strong network influence to attract developers, investors, and users. The Ethereum network uses Ethereum as a gas to create unreliable verification for a wide range of transactions.
  3. chain link (LINK-USD): The most widely used decentralized data network, Chainlink facilitates the transfer of tamper-proof data from off-chain sources to on-chain smart contracts. Decentralized data verification is a particle A use case that could lead Chainlink to connect the world’s economy through its application of “crypto truth”.
  4. helium (HNT-USD): The largest decentralized wireless infrastructure provider, Helium builds in preparation for the 5G world. By deploying low-power radios, Helium Network participants provide coverage for IoT devices and earn HNT.

If we believe that these projects will succeed, then it follows that there will be a point of maximum opportunity (bottom) at some point during the current bear market. To find potential bottoms, we use Elliott Wave theory along with Bitcoin price cycle theory.

Elliott Wave Bitcoin

Elliott Wave Bitcoin

Elliott Wave Bitcoin (TradingView)

Looking at the daily chart of bitcoin, the asset Currently moving wave 3 (the strongest wave) from its long-term corrective phase. Wave 3 usually extends to 1.618 along wave 1. When plotting, this Fibonacci extension indicates Bitcoin will crash for 21 thousand dollars.

With Bitcoin in Wave 3, this means a move deeper into Wave 5. To analyze how low the ability of the final 5 wave to push Bitcoin, we study data from two previous price cycles of the asset.

Bottom of the Bitcoin Price Cycle

After each parabola increase, Bitcoin drops from peak to trough by about 80% after one year. According to this movement, Bitcoin should reach $14,000 between October and November 2022.

Bitcoin price cycle analysis

Bitcoin price cycle analysis (TradingView)

a pioneer The difference between the current crypto bubble and the previous dot-com bubble, is that the speed of the internet should make the decline and recovery of cryptocurrency happen faster. As a result of this, we expect the entire cryptocurrency crash and bear market to end near the end of 2022. Depending on how bubbles typically appear, a drop could lead to below the baseline growth trend of Bitcoin (which can be determined by the 200-week simple moving average). ) to take Bitcoin as low as $14,000.

What are the affected projects?

From a conceptual standpoint, Bitcoin Currently in Fear/surrender Area chart “Stages in a Bubble”. Since Bitcoin’s previous rally was so long and unbroken, the toxic aspects of the market must die now before everything recovers.

stages in a bubble

stages in a bubble (Hofstra University)

The following bad actors represent the practices of Greed, Delusion, and New Paradigm that are typical of asset bubble tops. We expect each of these companies to collapse in the coming months:

  1. stock to flow The model – an incorrect predictive model that encouraged reckless speculation until 2021.
  2. micro . strategy The company secured a $205 million loan from Silvergate Bank on March 29 to acquire an additional 4,167 bitcoins at $45,714 per coin. The loan will be subject to a margin call if BTC drops to $21,000.
  3. Meme Coins – Examples include games developed with minimal gameplay to earn, pointless NFTs, and DeFi protocols for the Ponzi scheme.
  4. re-planning Unprotected leverage in DeFi markets needs to break down.
  5. Impact Investors Most social media platforms are rife with crypto creators who only give bullish expectations, because bearish speaking hurts views.

From now on, each of these institutions must die as Bitcoin gets back to work basal growth rate (200-week moving average).

main socket

  • Bitcoin is currently moving in wave 3 (The strongest Elliott wave) which expects the asset to reach $21,000.
  • Due to the speed of the internet, the cryptocurrency meltdown and the bear market could come to an end near the end of 2022.
  • A timely investment in any of the four projects mentioned above (BTC, ETH, LINK and HNT) should be very profitable in the long run.

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