Executives at Unity Software Inc. They found a way to avoid the fallout from changes in Apple Inc.’s mobile operating system.
It turned out that they were wrong, and Wall Street punished Unity Yu,
stock for that wednesday.
Shares have shed more than a third of their value, which has a market capitalization of about $5 billion, and is headed for its worst day ever after the game engine company revealed what many analysts described as a “self-inflicted wound” in its ad targeting tools. The decline began in the after-hours session on Tuesday, when Unity executives expected quarterly and annual revenue to be below Wall Street estimates along with included first-quarter results.
Shares tumbled 37% to an intraday low of $30.16 on Wednesday, making the stock on its worst day since its September 2020 initial public offering, when shares sold for $52 per share. The stock is currently 84% lower than its all-time closing high of $201.12, which was set on November 18.
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The big problem revealed by Unity was that the company’s Pinpointer advertising product in its Operate Solutions business, which helps developers make money from their games and content through ads, has been shown to be flawed and customers are spending less due to inaccuracies. Back in August, Unity’s Operate was a big driver as the company seemed to be able to work around Apple Inc’s AAPL. ,
Opting out of the use of the Identifier for Advertisers, or IDFA, to update its privacy, a change that has disrupted online advertising companies such as Meta Platforms Inc.’s FB,
Unity is said to have been using non-data-based advertising models from Apple, instead using data from end-user engagement and platform performance data. Customers flocked to the tool, but soon discovered it wasn’t up to the challenge, analysts said Wednesday as they lowered their target price.
Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Coast, who has a plus rating and cut his target price to $50 from $110, was quick to note that Pinpointer rose to prominence due to Apple IDFA changes and “has grown to be responsible for the majority of ad spend through the Unit’s ad network.” over the past year.”
“We believe the most significant driver of the directive reduction was the decline in ad spend, as customers reacted to the weaker display performance in the first/early second quarter,” Cost said. “While the underlying issues are now resolved, it will take time to retrain the machine learning algorithms and recover the ad spend that carried over earlier this year.”
“We also believe the directive has a secondary effect, as the engineers have been redeployed to fix these issues, as they have been forced to delay their other projects (many of which could have contributed to increased revenue) until later in 22/23,” Coast said.
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In a note titled “Self-Wounding,” Jefferies analyst Andrew Urkowitz, who has a hold rating and lowered the target price to $40 from $100, said “poor proprietary customer data” led to poor targeting.
“Over the course of February and March, Unity lost share to competitors due to poor performance versus competitors,” Uerkwitz said. “To make matters worse, the lack of redundancy in the system means, rather than a hard reset, Unity needs to be re-learn with the correct data and that will take time.”
“The self-inflicted wound should resolve by the start of the fourth quarter, and it should allow the company to get back on track with 30% or an increase in annual revenue growth,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, which has a superior rating and lowered the target price to $70 from $125.
“While we believe it is entirely possible, and even likely, that the unit will grow much faster than we design, we believe it would be prudent to set a relatively lower bound given the scale of the wound to itself in the last quarter,” Butcher said. .
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Analyst Stifel J. Parker Lane, with a buy rating and a target price cut to $100 from $150, expects that “Unity’s strong position in the mobile gaming space and a growing suite of monetization tools will help the company get back on track at the right time, With revenue growth recovering as the year progresses.”
“Overall, we believe that non-cluster vertical segments will continue to provide a long path of growth opportunities, and the stability of the operating business will help the company steer toward long-term growth expectations of over 30%,” Lin said.
Of the 18 analysts who covered Unity, 14 have a buy rating, three have a hold rating, and one has a sell rating, according to FactSet data. Of these analysts, 11 analysts cut their price targets on Wednesday, resulting in an average target of $79.63, compared to $139.31 previously.