Recent Bitcoin Bull Run and Prior Run-up Data Suggests a Softer Bear Market Is in the Cards

Bitcoin Bull Run and Previous Run Data Suggest a Softer Bear Market is in the Cards – Market Update Bitcoin News

It has been six months or nearly 180 days since bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000 per unit on November 10, 2021, and the value of bitcoin in US dollars has fallen 45% from that point. Typically after bitcoin price peaks, the next bear market results in a significant drop of 80% or more in value. However, since the recent price peak is similar to the growth from April 2013 to November 2013, the current bearish decline of Bitcoin may not be too big this time.

80% drop could lead to Bitcoin rally to $13,800 per unit

Bitcoin markets have been bearish for the past six months after hitting an all-time high for the crypto-asset (ATH) at $69,000 last year. While the prices are dismal for many, it has made people wonder how long the downward cycle will last.

Bitcoin Bull Run and past run data suggest a softer bear market is in the cards

The use of today’s Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rates against the US dollar indicates that the leading crypto asset has lost 45% so far. Typically, when BTC reaches its peak, the price drops significantly during long-term bearish cycles and after a few specific peaks, BTC drops more than 80% below the rally.

For example, in April 2013, BTC reached an all-time high of $259 per unit, but then fell back to $50 per unit, losing nearly 82.6% of its value. From a November 2013 high of $1,163 per unit through January 2016, the value of BTC has fallen by 86.9%. If the value of Bitcoin in US dollars drops 80% from its recent high of $69,000 six months ago, the price will drop to $13,800 per unit.

Softer bear market theory

However, there is a possibility that the current downward cycle will be shorter and less impactful this time around. While BTC saw at least three drops of 80% or more, it saw a much bigger drop of 32-51%. One of the reasons bitcoin’s bottom may not be so hard is that the crypto-asset’s peak wasn’t that big. In fact, the last Bitcoin rally was longer and saw gains of a much smaller percentage than the previous all-time highs. Crypto Lawyer and Youtuber Colin Talks Crypto discuss Softer bear market theory on May 1st.

Bitcoin Bull Run and past run data suggest a softer bear market is in the cards

From the August 17, 2012 high ($16) to the April 10, 2013 high ($259), BTC gained 1,518.75% between this time frame. After this cycle, between the April 10 2013 peak and the November 2013 peak, bitcoin gained 349.03%. Then from the November 2013 peak to the December 2017 peak, BTC jumped 1,590.97%.

Bitcoin Bull Run and past run data suggest a softer bear market is in the cards

This time, however, the December 2017 peak to the November 2021 peak was only 250.85%. It was the lowest winning percentage of all the major bulls in the crypto-asset’s lifetime. A lower jump could lead to a softer Bitcoin bear market that is much less severe than a drop of 80% or more.

In addition to the smaller ATH, the lead-up to the 2021 ATH was over 400 days. Bitcoin’s bullish run before (2017) only lasted 200 days or nearly half the time. This means that while the brunt of the current bear market may be somewhat softer, it may last much longer than previous bear cycles.

Tags in this story

$13800, 2013 Bull, 2017 Bull, 80% Down, Bear Market, Bear Run, Bearish, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), Bottoms, Bull Racing, Bullish, Colin Talks Crypto, Crypto Markets, Bull Longer, Tops, Shorter Term Softer bear market theory, tops

What do you think about the possibility of a softer bear market that is less drastic than the previous 80% drop bitcoin experienced in the past? Tell us what you think about it in the comments section below.

Jimmy Redman

Jamie Redman is the head of news at Bitcoin.com News and a technology financial journalist based in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 5,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.




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