Halving Bitcoin analysis hints at a bottom of $24,000 before the end of 2022

One of the most popular discussion topics within the crypto community revolves around the Bitcoin (BTC) half-year cycle and its impact on the long-term price of the best cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price has failed to reach the long-anticipated $100,000 level in 2021, and many crypto analysts are now finding themselves questioning the outlook for the next six to twelve months.

Currently, BTC price is trading below $40,000, and various technical analysis metrics suggest that further downside is likely to be a recovery to the $40,000 to $45,000 range. Let’s take a look at what analysts think of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin could drop in November or December

An overview of the four-year cycle theory was discuss In a Twitter thread by a crypto analyst and Twitter user with the pseudonym “Wolves of Crypto”, who analyzed it Indicates That “the most likely bear market bottom for Bitcoin will occur in November/December 2022.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

This projection assumes that the BTC price peak of $68,789 on November 10, 2021 marked the peak of the last cycle and that the market is currently in the corrective phase usually seen after the cycle top.

The analyst said,

“The 200-week simple moving average is the long-tested bearish market bottom indicator for Bitcoin, so the bottom is likely to be placed at $24,000.”

If this pattern runs, the price of BTC will rise above its previous all-time high sometime in August or September of 2023.

Bitcoin ‘looks undervalued here’

The possibility that a bottom in BTC could come before the end of 2022 was hinted at by Willy Woo, an independent market analyst who… Spread The following graph indicates that “the orange coin looks undervalued here.”

Very fluid supply shock oscillator. Source: Twitter

The “liquid severe supply shock” metric measures demand and supply on the chain, and shows its relative movement in standard deviations from the long-term average.

As shown in the chart above, every time the oscillator drops to as low as the current reading, BTC price enters a sharp rally shortly thereafter.

Wu said,

“Not a bad time for investors to wait for the mean regression law.”

Related: Bitcoin Drops 40%+ from ATH, But On-Chain Analysts Say It’s ‘Starting to Fall’

Bitcoin price at its lowest level in the medium term

Many analysts believe that BTC could be in an ideal accumulation range, a point that crypto market analyst Philip Swift touched on. According to Swift, the Active Address Trend Indicator (AASI) indicates that BTC is in buy territory.

Active title sentiment indicator. Source: Twitter

According to Swift, AASI is “currently back in the green,” indicating that “Bitcoin’s price change is at a reasonable level relative to an active address change.”

Swift said,

“This tool has a good hit rate across bulls and bears to indicate a low in the medium term.”

In fact, a survey of previous instances where AASI reached levels similar to its current reading shows that the price of BTC bottomed around the same time and continued to rise in the following weeks and months.

Overall, Bitcoin price action appears to be in line with the previously defined four-year cycle, albeit by a smaller percentage than expected.

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